{"id":1569,"date":"2026-04-21T00:02:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T22:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/?p=1569"},"modified":"2026-04-21T00:02:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T22:02:35","slug":"popullsia-e-be-se-do-te-bjere-me-12-per-qind-deri-ne-vitin-2100-cilat-vende-do-te-pesojne-renien-me-te-madhe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/?p=1569","title":{"rendered":"Popullsia e BE-s\u00eb do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb me 12 p\u00ebr qind deri n\u00eb vitin 2100, cilat vende do t\u00eb p\u00ebsojn\u00eb r\u00ebnien m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe?"},"content":{"rendered":"
Shkalla e fertilitetit po bie dhe popullsia po plaket n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb. Parashikimet e fundit nga Eurostat tregojn\u00eb se popullsia e BE-s\u00eb pritet t\u00eb bjer\u00eb me 11.7% midis viteve 2025 dhe 2100.<\/p>\n

Popullsia do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb nga 452 milion\u00eb n\u00eb 399 milion\u00eb, nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej 53 milion\u00eb njer\u00ebzish deri n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm. Ky parashikim p\u00ebrfshin migrimin e mundsh\u00ebm, transmeton Telegrafi.<\/p>\n

Ndryshimi i parashikuar i popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn ndryshon shum\u00eb. Disa vende do t\u00eb ken\u00eb popullsi m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb vitin 2100 krahasuar me vitin 2025, nd\u00ebrsa shum\u00eb t\u00eb tjera do t\u00eb shohin r\u00ebnie.<\/p>\n

Pra, cilat vende do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me r\u00ebnien m\u00eb t\u00eb mpreht\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb? Cilat vende do t\u00eb rriten? \u00c7far\u00eb i nxit k\u00ebto ndryshime midis vendeve? Pse disa popullata rriten nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb tjerat bien?<\/p>\n

Midis 30 vendeve evropiane, 12 pritet t\u00eb shohin rritje t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa 18 do t\u00eb p\u00ebrjetojn\u00eb r\u00ebnie deri n\u00eb vitin 2100.<\/p>\n

Letonia (33.9%), Lituania (33.4%), Polonia (31.6%) dhe Greqia (30.1%) parashikohet t\u00eb regjistrojn\u00eb r\u00ebniet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, t\u00eb gjitha mbi 30%. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se m\u00eb shum\u00eb se tre n\u00eb dhjet\u00eb persona mund t\u00eb humbasin deri n\u00eb vitin 2100.<\/p>\n

R\u00ebnia \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu mbi 20% n\u00eb Bullgari (28%), Kroaci (27%), Sllovaki (26.7%), Rumani (24.3%), Itali (24%) dhe Hungari (22.5%). Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb af\u00ebrsisht ekuivalente me humbjen e rreth nj\u00eb n\u00eb kat\u00ebr persona n\u00eb k\u00ebto vende, gj\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse.<\/p>\n

R\u00ebnia e popullsis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu midis 10% dhe 20% n\u00eb Portugali (19.3%), Estoni (19.1%), \u00c7eki (11.5%), Finland\u00eb (10.7%), Slloveni (10.6%) dhe Gjermani (10.6%).<\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, tre vende evropiane pritet t\u00eb rriten me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 25%, megjith\u00ebse popullsia e tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb relativisht e vog\u00ebl: Luksemburgu (36.4%), Islanda (27.1%) dhe Malta (26%).<\/p>\n

Zvicra (16.9%), Irlanda (14.6%), Norvegjia (11.8%) dhe Suedia (10%) jan\u00eb vende t\u00eb tjera q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb shohin rritje t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb mbi 10%.<\/p>\n

“Kryesisht e nxitur nga normat e migrimit t\u00eb kaluar dhe t\u00eb parashikuar”<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Ky ndryshim \u00ebsht\u00eb kryesisht i nxitur nga ndryshimet n\u00eb normat e migrimit t\u00eb kaluar dhe t\u00eb parashikuar, n\u00eb kombinim me ndryshimet n\u00eb struktur\u00ebn e mosh\u00ebs”, tha p\u00ebr Euronews Health, Dr. Tomas Sobotka, z\u00ebvend\u00ebsdrejtor i Institutit t\u00eb Demografis\u00eb n\u00eb Vjen\u00eb.<\/p>\n

“Vendet me lindshm\u00ebri t\u00eb ul\u00ebt dhe emigracion t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm n\u00eb dekadat e fundit kan\u00eb tendenc\u00eb t\u00eb ken\u00eb nj\u00eb struktur\u00eb moshe m\u00eb t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr, me pak njer\u00ebz n\u00eb mosh\u00eb t\u00eb re dhe riprodhuese”, shtoi ai.<\/p>\n

Sobotka theksoi se ky ndryshim n\u00eb dinamik\u00ebn e popullsis\u00eb ndikohet gjithashtu nga ndryshimet n\u00eb normat e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb parashikuar, por “n\u00eb nj\u00eb mas\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl”. Vendet e Evrop\u00ebs Jugore kan\u00eb dhe pritet t\u00eb ken\u00eb lindshm\u00ebri m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt se pjes\u00ebt e tjera t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

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Dr. Anne Goujon nga Instituti i Demografis\u00eb n\u00eb Vjen\u00eb deklaroi gjithashtu se arsyeja kryesore p\u00ebr k\u00ebto ndryshime \u00ebsht\u00eb ekuilibri midis ndryshimit natyror dhe migrimit neto.<\/p>\n

“Nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb gjitha vendet e BE-s\u00eb kan\u00eb lindshm\u00ebri t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, vendet me imigracion t\u00eb q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm mund t\u00eb rriten pavar\u00ebsisht lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb ul\u00ebt p\u00ebrtej vitit 2050 (p.sh. Luksemburgu dhe Malta), nd\u00ebrsa vendet me lindshm\u00ebri t\u00eb ul\u00ebt dhe flukse m\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebta migrimi ose bilanc negativ neto migrimi kan\u00eb tendenc\u00eb t\u00eb ulen (p.sh. Letonia, Lituania dhe Polonia)”, tha ajo p\u00ebr Euronews Health.<\/p>\n

Roli i lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i kufizuar n\u00eb dallime<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sipas Dr. Dmitri Jdanov nga Instituti Max Planck p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkime Demografike, tre faktor\u00eb kryesor\u00eb shpjegojn\u00eb dinamik\u00ebn e popullsis\u00eb: vdekshm\u00ebria, lindshm\u00ebria dhe migrimi.<\/p>\n

Ai shpjegoi se niveli aktual i lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtes\u00eb as madh\u00ebsin\u00eb aktuale t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb rritja natyrore \u00ebsht\u00eb e pashmangshme pa migrim. Dallimet specifike t\u00eb vendit n\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebri n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb parashikim nuk jan\u00eb aq t\u00eb m\u00ebdha sa t\u00eb shpjegojn\u00eb ndryshimet n\u00eb dinamik\u00ebn e popullsis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u201cMigrimi \u00ebsht\u00eb i vetmi faktor q\u00eb mund t\u00eb siguroj\u00eb rritjen e popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb. Natyrisht, supozimet n\u00eb lidhje me migrimin ndryshojn\u00eb nga nj\u00eb vend n\u00eb tjetrin\u201d, tha ai p\u00ebr Euronews Health.<\/p>\n

Spanja \u00ebsht\u00eb vendi i vet\u00ebm i \u201cKat\u00ebr t\u00eb M\u00ebdhenjve\u201d q\u00eb sheh rritje t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Midis vendeve t\u00eb \u201cKat\u00ebr t\u00eb M\u00ebdhenjve\u201d t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket madh\u00ebsis\u00eb ekonomike dhe popullsis\u00eb, Spanja \u00ebsht\u00eb i vetmi vend q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb shoh\u00eb rritje t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb deri n\u00eb vitin 2100, megjith\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb modeste n\u00eb 1.3%.<\/p>\n

Franca parashikohet t\u00eb bjer\u00eb pak me 2.5%. Gjermania (10.6%) dhe ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht Italia (24%) pritet t\u00eb shohin r\u00ebnie m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u201cSpanja ka p\u00ebrjetuar nj\u00eb nivel t\u00eb madh imigracioni n\u00eb tre dekadat e fundit, gj\u00eb q\u00eb e mbajti popullsin\u00eb e saj n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb pavar\u00ebsisht normave shum\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb fertilitetit n\u00eb vend\u201d, tha Sobotka.<\/p>\n

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Ai n\u00ebnvizoi se Franca ka nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb fertiliteti m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb se shumica e vendeve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb, dhe shkalla e saj pak m\u00eb e lart\u00eb e fertilitetit, struktura e popullsis\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb re dhe imigracioni i moderuar parashikohet ta mbajn\u00eb popullsin\u00eb e saj af\u00ebrsisht t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme.<\/p>\n

Sobotka vuri n\u00eb dukje rolin e fertilitetit m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt dhe nj\u00eb popullsie t\u00eb moshuar n\u00eb Itali.<\/p>\n

Renditja e popullsis\u00eb ndryshon: Spanja tejkalon Italin\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trendet e parashikuara t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb do t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb gjithashtu renditjen e vendeve m\u00eb t\u00eb populluara midis viteve 2025 dhe 2100.<\/p>\n

Ndryshimi m\u00eb i duksh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb se Spanja do t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb Italin\u00eb p\u00ebr t’u b\u00ebr\u00eb vendi i tret\u00eb m\u00eb i populluar. Gjat\u00eb k\u00ebsaj periudhe, popullsia e Italis\u00eb pritet t\u00eb bjer\u00eb me 15 milion\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa ajo e Spanj\u00ebs do t\u00eb rritet me rreth gjysm\u00eb milioni.<\/p>\n

Midis 30 vendeve, Zvicra (nga e 15-ta n\u00eb t\u00eb 10-t\u00ebn), Irlanda (nga e 21-ta n\u00eb t\u00eb 17-t\u00ebn) dhe Norvegjia (nga e 19-ta n\u00eb t\u00eb 16-t\u00ebn) do t\u00eb shohin rritjet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb renditje. N\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, Bullgaria (nga e 16-ta n\u00eb t\u00eb 20-t\u00ebn), Portugalia (nga e 10-ta n\u00eb t\u00eb 13-t\u00ebn) dhe Greqia (nga e 12-ta n\u00eb t\u00eb 15-t\u00ebn) do t\u00eb regjistrojn\u00eb r\u00ebniet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha.<\/p>\n

Trendet e pabarabarta t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ndryshimet e parashikuara t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb lineare n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn midis viteve 2025 dhe 2100. N\u00eb disa vende, popullsit\u00eb do t\u00eb rriten p\u00ebr nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb para se t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb bien. Si rezultat, niveli p\u00ebrfundimtar mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb ose m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt ose m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se n\u00eb vitin 2025.<\/p>\n

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Kur popullsit\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2025 indeksohen me 100, trendet demografike ndryshojn\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb vende t\u00eb ndryshme, duke treguar modele t\u00eb ndryshme t\u00eb rritjes dhe r\u00ebnies. P\u00ebr shembull, n\u00eb BE, popullsia pritet t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00ebn nivelet aktuale deri n\u00eb vitin 2040. <\/p>\n

N\u00eb Spanj\u00eb, parashikohet t\u00eb rritet me rreth 10% deri n\u00eb vitin 2055, p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb bjer\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb vet\u00ebm 1 p\u00ebrqind mbi nivelet e vitit 2025 deri n\u00eb vitin 2100.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, disa vende ndjekin nj\u00eb trend r\u00ebn\u00ebs gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb periudh\u00ebs. Kjo r\u00ebnie \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e theksuar n\u00eb Itali, nd\u00ebrsa \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb graduale n\u00eb Gjermani. Nj\u00eb n\u00eb tre evropian\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb mbi 65 vje\u00e7 deri n\u00eb vitin 2100<\/p>\n

Duke par\u00eb ndryshimet n\u00eb grupmoshat, popullsia e BE-s\u00eb parashikohet t\u00eb jet\u00eb duksh\u00ebm m\u00eb e vjet\u00ebr deri n\u00eb vitin 2100. Grafiku i m\u00ebsip\u00ebrm p\u00ebr BE-n\u00eb tregon k\u00ebt\u00eb ndryshim gradual, por t\u00eb thell\u00eb demografik.<\/p>\n

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Pjesa e njer\u00ebzve t\u00eb mosh\u00ebs 85 vje\u00e7 e lart pritet t\u00eb trefishohet, duke u rritur nga 3.2% n\u00eb vitin 2025 n\u00eb 10.8% deri n\u00eb vitin 2100. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb n\u00eb dhjet\u00eb evropian\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb grupmosh\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Personat e mosh\u00ebs midis 66 dhe 84 vje\u00e7 parashikohet gjithashtu t\u00eb rrisin pjes\u00ebn e tyre, nga 17.6% n\u00eb 21.8%. S\u00eb bashku, popullsia mbi 65 vje\u00e7 do t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebj\u00eb pothuajse nj\u00eb n\u00eb tre evropian\u00eb deri n\u00eb vitin 2100, krahasuar me nj\u00eb n\u00eb pes\u00eb sot.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, \u00e7do grupmosh\u00eb m\u00eb e re pritet t\u00eb tkurret si pjes\u00eb e totalit. Popullsia n\u00eb mosh\u00eb pune midis 31 dhe 65 vje\u00e7 – shtylla kurrizore e ekonomive evropiane – parashikohet t\u00eb bjer\u00eb nga 47.8% n\u00eb 40.5%. \/Telegrafi\/<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-lajme"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1569"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1569\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1570,"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1569\/revisions\/1570"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infoshqip.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}